Arkansas State

The Red Wolves enter 2026 needing to replace starting quarterback Jaylen Raynor, who transferred to Iowa State after throwing for 95.0 PPA last season. Drew Dickey arrives from Vanderbilt to compete for the job, though his 3.2 PPA suggests he'll need significant development to fill the void. Arkansas State's -6.0 JP+ rating ranks 103rd nationally, with both sides of the ball struggling — the offense sits 98th at -2.8 points and the defense checks in 107th at -3.2. The transfer portal took a heavy toll with 36 departures totaling 111.8 PPA lost, including tight end Tyler Fortenberry who followed Raynor to Iowa State, while only 24 arrivals added 3.2 PPA back to the roster.

JP+ projects just 0.7 wins for the Red Wolves in 2026, reflecting the significant talent drain and uncertainty at quarterback. The new signal-caller will face immediate pressure in a Sun Belt Conference that continues to elevate its competitiveness, with road games against TCU and Memphis representing the program's biggest challenges. If the quarterback competition produces a capable starter and the defense can exceed its bottom-25 projection, Arkansas State could surprise and reach bowl eligibility again. If not, this transition year could result in a significant step backward from last season's 6-6 record.