Arkansas State

The Red Wolves enter 2026 with a new signal-caller under center after Jaylen Raynor transferred to Iowa State, taking 95.0 points of production with him. Arkansas State's JP+ rating of -6.7 points slots them 106th nationally, with an offense that grades out equally modest at 106th and a defense that struggles more at 113th. The portal proved costly with 36 departures removing 111.8 points of production while 24 arrivals added just 3.2 points, headlined by quarterback Drew Dickey from Vanderbilt. Tyler Fortenberry also followed Raynor to Iowa State, further thinning the offensive skill position depth.

JP+ projects 7.4 wins for Arkansas State in what shapes up as a steady but unspectacular Sun Belt campaign. The defense will need to improve significantly from its bottom-third national ranking to support an offense breaking in new pieces at critical positions. Road trips to TCU, Memphis, and Louisiana Tech represent the season's biggest challenges, while home games against Georgia State, ULM, and West Georgia offer opportunities to build momentum. If the new quarterback develops quickly and the defense finds its footing, the Red Wolves could push toward eight wins. If not, they're looking at another .500 season in a competitive Sun Belt.