JP+ One-Sheet
Arkansas State
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
7.3
Model Profile
#101
JP+ Rank
#106
Off Adj
#107
Def Adj
Overall
-6.0
Offense
-3.4
Defense
-3.2
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
7.3
JP+
7.0
SP+
Bowl Path89%
Fast Start78%
Collapse Risk1%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
78% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 89%. Collapse risk 1% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 93% to 17%.
Sun Belt Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Marshall | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.3 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Appalachian State | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Troy | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Old Dominion | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Georgia Southern | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| South Alabama | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Southern Miss | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 |