JP+ One-Sheet

Arkansas State

Sun Belt | 2026

Projected Wins

7.0

Team Thesis

Arkansas State Rebuilds Behind Center After Raynor's Departure. Jaylen Raynor threw his way to Iowa State, taking 95.0 points of expected production with him, and that departure is the headline offseason storyline in Jonesboro.

Model Profile

#103

JP+ Rank

#107

Offense

#106

Defense

-6.5

Overall

-3.6

Offense

-3.3

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

6.5

Market

7.0

JP+

6.6

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.5 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#87

Rated coverage73%

Candidate members74

Rated players54

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path85%

4-2 start36%

Collapse risk5%

36% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 85%. Collapse risk 5% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 92% to 15%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the new starter settles in quickly and the front seven finds its pass-rush answers, this group can push past 7.3 and return to a bowl.

Bear Case

6-6

If either issue lingers into October, a repeat of last year's 6-6 finish is the more likely outcome.

Sun Belt Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
James Madison	7.7	8.5	8.9
Marshall	7.6	7.5	7.7
Arkansas State	7.0	6.5	6.6
Louisiana	6.8	7.5	7.5
Appalachian State	6.8	5.5	6.2
Troy	6.4	6.5	7.2
Louisiana Tech	6.4	5.5	6.5
Old Dominion	6.1	7.5	7.2