Jaylen Raynor threw his way to Iowa State, taking 95.0 points of expected production with him, and that departure is the headline offseason storyline in Jonesboro. The QB competition winner inherits a offense that projects as below average, with concentration risk on that side of the ball after also losing leading receiver Corey Rucker and tight end Tyler Fortenberry, who followed Raynor to Ames. Vanderbilt transfer Drew Dickey arrives as the top-billed portal addition, though his 3.2 PPA mark is nowhere near enough by itself to offset a portal ledger that saw 36 departures and only 24 arrivals. The defense, meanwhile, is dealing with its own attrition up front — edge and pass-rush snaps are the biggest question marks — pushing the group into a below-average bucket alongside the offense, while special teams project as the most stable phase of the operation.

JP+ projects 7.3 wins, a number built on a favorable-looking schedule bottom-half rather than any single dominant unit. Road trips to TCU and Memphis, plus a Louisiana Tech test, headline the difficult stretch, while home dates with Georgia State, ULM, and West Georgia offer the clearest paths to bowl eligibility. The gap between that projection and any market number likely comes down to uncertainty at quarterback and along the defensive front — replacement confidence sits at medium, and the review-worthy flags here are exactly those two spots. If the new starter settles in quickly and the front seven finds its pass-rush answers, this group can push past 7.3 and return to a bowl. If either issue lingers into October, a repeat of last year's 6-6 finish is the more likely outcome.