Ryan Silverfield arrives from Memphis with a track record of building efficient, modern offenses, and Arkansas has handed him the pieces to do exactly that while asking him to fix everything else. The offense looks like the strength of this roster, aided by a portal haul headlined by wide receivers Donovan Faupel (33.3 PPA, New Mexico State), Chris Marshall (26.5 PPA, Boise State) and Jamari Hawkins (22.9 PPA, Memphis) — all brought in to replace departed pass catchers Andy Jean and Krosse Johnson. Taylen Green is gone, and the new signal-caller inherits a receiving corps that's been almost entirely reshuffled, with the offensive line getting a boost from transfer tackle Bryant Williams out of Louisiana. The defense is the real project. It graded out as roughly average a year ago and now faces real coverage attrition, having lost pieces across the back end with modest returning experience to lean on — the kind of unit that needs a total teardown rather than a tune-up, especially after a 2-10 season exposed its limits weekly.

JP+ pegs Arkansas at 4.8 wins, a modest number for a program that just replaced its head coach and its starting quarterback in the same offseason. The schedule doesn't do the Hogs many favors early against Texas and Texas A&M on the road and Georgia at home, but South Carolina, Tulsa and North Alabama all visit Fayetteville as legitimate win opportunities. The gap between projection and expectation comes down to how fast the new quarterback situation stabilizes and whether the defense's coverage questions get answered by December — both areas carry more uncertainty than a typical rebuild given the scale of roster turnover. If the receiver additions click quickly and the defense finds even average competence, this group can push past the projection and contend for a bowl. If the secondary issues linger and the quarterback competition takes time to settle, Arkansas is looking at another long season in Silverfield's debut.