Arizona State's offseason theme is replacement at scale, and the portal ledger tells the story: 23 departures worth 176.3 PPA out, 24 arrivals worth 157.3 PPA in, an operation built to keep last season's surge going without its best players. Sam Leavitt, the engine behind the breakthrough, is off to LSU, and Jordyn Tyson left early for the draft after a 52.7 PPA season that made him the offense's focal point. Arizona State replaced him at quarterback with Cutter Boley, a Kentucky transfer who arrives as the state's top offseason addition at 57.9 PPA, while Omarion Miller from Colorado and Reed Harris from Boston College restock a receiver room that lost its top target. Raleek Brown also left for Texas, adding to the turnover, but the program addressed its most glaring weakness by fixing special teams, a unit that graded below average and dragged on winnable games. The broader profile is above average, with a defense that still projects as the strength of the roster even after absorbing coverage attrition, and an offense that now leans on a new signal-caller and imported perimeter weapons to hold steady in the middle of the pack.

JP+ pegs Arizona State at 6.3 projected wins, a number that reflects real uncertainty around the quarterback competition and a defense replacing coverage pieces, even with the defensive front expected to anchor things again. The schedule doesn't do the offense any favors early against the transition, with road trips to Texas Tech, Texas A&M and BYU representing the toughest stretch, while home dates with Colorado, Hawaii and Morgan State offer the clearest paths to bank wins. The gap between that projection and the preseason buzz around another Big 12 title run comes down to how fast Boley and the new receivers gel and whether the secondary replacements hold up behind a defensive front that carried the breakthrough season. If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and the special-teams fixes hold, Arizona State's ceiling is a return trip to the Big 12 title picture. If the offense misfires while defensive replacements are still finding their footing, a step back into the 6-7 win range is the more likely floor.