JP+ One-Sheet

Arizona State

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

6.1

Team Thesis

Arizona State Rebuilds the Skill Groups and Special Teams to Defend Its Big 12 Breakthrough. Arizona State's offseason theme is replacement at scale, and the portal ledger tells the story: 23 departures worth 176.3 PPA out, 24 arrivals worth 157.3 P…

Model Profile

#48

JP+ Rank

#65

Offense

#29

Defense

+5.1

Overall

+0.4

Offense

+4.2

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

6.5

Market

6.1

JP+

5.8

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.4 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#47

Rated coverage84%

Candidate members75

Rated players63

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path66%

4-2 start36%

Collapse risk14%

36% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 66%. Collapse risk 14% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 98% to 14%.

Bull Case

8-4

If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and the special-teams fixes hold, Arizona State's ceiling is a return trip to the Big 12 title pictu…

Bear Case

5-7

If the offense misfires while defensive replacements are still finding their footing, a step back into the 6-7 win range is the more likely floo…

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
Baylor	6.3	6.5	5.9
Arizona State	6.1	6.5	5.8
Oklahoma State	6.0	6.5	6.7