Fifita is gone, and so is the certainty that came with him, but Arizona's offseason theme isn't collapse — it's a defense that looks top-tier heading into a Big 12 push, propping up an offense that still projects above average even while breaking in the QB competition winner. Braedyn Locke, who posted -17.8 PPA before transferring to Tarleton State, was the most notable QB departure, but the bigger story is what came in around whoever wins the job: Cole Rusk arrives from Illinois as the headline transfer at 14.8 PPA, Rodney Gallagher III adds juice at receiver after producing 14.2 PPA at West Virginia, and Shane King rounds out a tight end room retooled almost from scratch. The offense carries low continuity by the numbers — 50% returning production, just 14% of targets back — but 100% of QB return share and 67% OL continuity suggest the pieces around the new starter aren't as thin as the raw churn implies. Defensively, Arizona return substantial coverage risk after losing pieces to attrition, with role loss and coverage metrics flagged by the model as areas needing depth answers, even as the unit projects as the clear anchor of this roster.

JP+ pegs Arizona at 7.1 projected wins, a number that undersells a team whose defensive profile and offensive upgrades both point toward outperforming a middling market line. The gap comes from lingering uncertainty at quarterback and the flagged coverage attrition on defense — real structural questions even if the broad talent level says otherwise. Road trips to Texas Tech and BYU, plus a home date with Utah, will decide how far this team goes, while Washington State, Northern Illinois, and Northern Arizona offer a cushion to build early confidence. If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and the secondary replacements hold up, Arizona pushes past 7.1 wins and into real Big 12 title contention. If either breaks down, a defense-driven double-digit-win season slips into another solid-but-unspectacular year.