Arizona

The Wildcats built their 9-3 season around a top-20 defense that carried an inconsistent offense, and the portal additions suggest they're doubling down on that formula. Arizona's defense grades out at +5.3 points per game (19th nationally) while the offense sits at a pedestrian +0.7 (55th), creating a clear identity that hinges on defensive dominance and opportunistic scoring. The portal brought meaningful upgrades, headlined by tight end Cole Rusk from Illinois and receiver Rodney Gallagher III from West Virginia, while the departure of backup quarterback Braedyn Locke to Tarleton State creates no meaningful continuity disruption.

JP+ projects 7.0 wins for Arizona in 2026, a step back from last year's breakthrough that reflects both defensive attrition in the secondary and offensive uncertainty around replacing departed skill position players. The Wildcats face structural fragility in pass coverage after losing key contributors, though their overall defensive foundation remains strong enough to keep them competitive in most Big 12 matchups. If the new signal-caller can manage games effectively and the portal additions mesh quickly, Arizona pushes toward another 8-9 win season and Big 12 title contention. If the coverage instability becomes exposed against high-powered passing attacks, they settle closer to that 7-win projection with tough road trips to Texas Tech and BYU looming large.