JP+ One-Sheet

Arizona

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

7.2

Team Thesis

Arizona Reloads Around a New Quarterback and a Defense Built to Carry the Load. Fifita is gone, and so is the certainty that came with him, but Arizona's offseason theme isn't collapse — it's a defense that looks top-tier heading into a Big 12 push,…

Model Profile

#35

JP+ Rank

#52

Offense

#23

Defense

+7.1

Overall

+1.5

Offense

+5.1

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

7.5

Market

7.2

JP+

7.6

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.3 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#54

Rated coverage75%

Candidate members80

Rated players60

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path89%

4-2 start79%

Collapse risk11%

79% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 89%. Collapse risk 11% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 98% to 37%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and the secondary replacements hold up, Arizona pushes past 7.2 wins and into real Big 12 title cont…

Bear Case

6-6

If either breaks down, a defense-driven double-digit-win season slips into another solid-but-unspectacular year.

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
UCF	6.9	5.5	6.0
Houston	6.7	8.5	7.4
TCU	6.5	6.5	7.4