Alabama's offseason starts and ends with one question: who plays quarterback? Ty Simpson is gone to the NFL Draft after producing 178.0 PPA, and the new signal-caller remains unnamed heading into fall camp. That uncertainty sits atop an offense also replacing Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton (now at Texas A&M) and Jam Miller, while trying to stabilize an offensive line that returns only 48% continuity. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, hired away from the Washington/Seattle staff to replace Nick Sheridan, inherits a group that added NC State transfer Noah Rogers (29.7 PPA) as its top offensive skill piece, along with tight end Josh Ford and running back Khalifa Keith. The defense, meanwhile, remains the foundation — a top-tier unit on paper even as it manages edge and pressure attrition up front, with a returning defensive coordinator overseeing the rebuild. Special teams lag behind as the clearest weakness on the roster, a modest but real drag on an otherwise loaded profile.

JP+ projects 7.4 wins, notably below a market number that has bettors leaning Under 8.5 at 34% EV — a gap explained almost entirely by the structural uncertainty at quarterback and along the offensive line. A schedule featuring road trips to LSU and Tennessee, plus a home date with Georgia, doesn't offer much room for the passing game to find its footing gradually. If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the offensive line gels faster than the continuity numbers suggest, Alabama's defense can carry this team back to a CFP semifinal. If the offense stays muddled into October, a step back toward 7-8 wins becomes the realistic outcome.