JP+ One-Sheet
Alabama
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.4
Model Profile
#12
JP+ Rank
#19
Off Adj
#11
Def Adj
Overall
+15.8
Offense
+6.0
Defense
+9.3
Win Total Context
8.5
Market
7.4
JP+
8.1
SP+
Bowl Path91%
Fast Start37%
Collapse Risk25%
Path Shape
Bowl live
37% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 91%. Collapse risk 25% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk13: 99% to 68%.
SEC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.8 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| Texas A&M | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Texas | 8.0 | 9.5 | 8.6 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Florida | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Tennessee | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| Alabama | 7.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Vanderbilt | 6.9 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Missouri | 6.8 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| South Carolina | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 |