JP+ One-Sheet
Alabama
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.3Team Thesis
Alabama Enters 2026 Searching for Answers at Quarterback. Alabama's offseason starts and ends with one question: who plays quarterback?
Model Profile
#14
JP+ Rank
#23
Offense
#11
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
8.5
Market
7.3
JP+
7.8
SP+
JP+ GAP: -1.2 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#4
Rated coverage89%
Candidate members79
Rated players70
Season Path
Bowl live
Bowl path89%
5-1 start35%
Collapse risk28%
35% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 89%. Collapse risk 28% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk13: 99% to 68%.
Bull Case
9-3If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the offensive line gels faster than the continuity numbers suggest, Alabama's defense can ca…
Bear Case
6-6If the offense stays muddled into October, a step back toward 7-8 wins becomes the realistic outcome.
SEC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas A&M | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Tennessee | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Alabama | 7.3 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Vanderbilt | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.3 |