Alabama

Alabama enters 2026 with its biggest question mark under center after losing Ty Simpson to the NFL Draft, forcing a complete reset at the sport's most crucial position. The Crimson Tide's +15.8 JP+ rating ranks 14th nationally, powered by an elite defense that grades at +9.7 (11th) while the offense sits at a more modest +6.1 (19th). New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb arrives from the outside to replace Nick Sheridan and inherit a roster reshaped by significant portal movement — 27 departures cost 250.7 PPA while 17 arrivals added just 29.4 back. The headliner among newcomers is receiver Noah Rogers, who brings 29.7 PPA from NC State to help offset the losses of Isaiah Horton (52.8 PPA, to Texas A&M) and Rico Scott to the portal.

JP+ projects 7.5 wins for Alabama in a challenging SEC slate that includes road trips to LSU and Tennessee plus a home date with Georgia, though friendlier contests against Florida State, East Carolina, and Chattanooga should provide breathing room. That projection sits well under the betting market's 7.4-win total, creating potential value for under bettors given the uncertainty surrounding the new signal-caller and Grubb's offensive installation. If the quarterback competition produces a capable starter and the ground game shows improvement under Grubb's system, this defense is good enough to carry Alabama back to the College Football Playoff semifinals. If not, those road games in Baton Rouge and Knoxville could define a season that falls short of championship expectations.