Liam Szarka is back under center after a 4-8 season, and that alone separates this offseason from a rebuild. The bigger story is what Air Force didn't have to replace. The defense returns with stable continuity, no major role-loss flags, and light departure numbers relative to most rosters around the league, while the offense deals with more churn after losing Cade Harris, Dylan Carson, Bruin Fleischmann, and Quin Smith to the portal. Four departures left with no offensive production added back in return, which is notable given the skill-position names on that list, but with Szarka retained and the offensive line mostly returning, the pieces are there to keep the operation from stalling. The model profile paints this as a roughly average team overall — average offense, a defense that projects below average despite its structural stability, and a special teams unit that grades as a clear strength and could tilt field position in close games.

JP+ projects 8.3 wins against a market number set at 7.5, and the gap comes down to where this team wins games it's supposed to win. UTEP, San Jose State, and Duquesne at home look like the floor of a bowl-eligible season, while Army on the road, Navy at home, and a trip to New Mexico will decide whether 8.3 turns into something more. If the defense's continuity translates into steadier tackling and fewer explosive plays allowed, and special teams keeps flipping field position, this group clears the projected win total. If the offense's lower continuity shows up as early inconsistency, especially replacing the departed skill talent, it's a step back toward last year's four-win mark.