JP+ One-Sheet
Air Force
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
8.3
Model Profile
#64
JP+ Rank
#71
Off Adj
#89
Def Adj
Overall
+1.7
Offense
-0.2
Defense
-1.7
Win Total Context
6.5
Market
8.3
JP+
7.8
SP+
Bowl Path97%
Fast Start79%
Collapse Risk0%
Path Shape
Soft landing
79% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 97%. Collapse risk 0% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk10: 73% to 40%.
Mountain West Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 8.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| UNLV | 8.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| New Mexico | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Wyoming | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| San Jose State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| UTEP | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Northern Illinois | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 |