JP+ One-Sheet

Air Force

Mountain West | 2026

Projected Wins

8.0

Team Thesis

Air Force Returns Its Quarterback and Leans on a Settled Defense to Rebound. Liam Szarka is back under center after a 4-8 season, and that alone separates this offseason from a rebuild.

Model Profile

#75

JP+ Rank

#74

Offense

#102

Defense

0.0

Overall

-0.3

Offense

-2.8

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

7.5

Market

8.0

JP+

7.6

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.5 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#137

Rated coverage28%

Candidate members65

Rated players18

Season Path

Soft landing

Bowl path96%

4-2 start74%

Collapse risk4%

74% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 96%. Collapse risk 4% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 99% to 64%.

Bull Case

10-2

If the defense's continuity translates into steadier tackling and fewer explosive plays allowed, and special teams keeps flipping field position…

Bear Case

7-5

If the offense's lower continuity shows up as early inconsistency, especially replacing the departed skill talent, it's a step back toward last…

Mountain West Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
UNLV	8.1	7.5	8.8
Air Force	8.0	7.5	7.6
North Dakota State	7.9	9.5	8.3
Hawaii	7.2	7.5	7.7
New Mexico	7.0	7.5	8.2
Wyoming	5.4	5.5	5.9
Nevada	5.4	4.5	5.0
San Jose State	4.8	4.5	4.4