Air Force

Air Force enters 2026 needing to solve its offensive struggles after a frustrating 4-8 season that saw the Falcons stumble in Mountain West play. The offense grades out 68th nationally in JP+ metrics, a modest improvement over the defense that ranks 88th, but quarterback Liam Szarka returns as the starter to provide much-needed continuity under center. The Falcons lost key contributors Cade Harris, Dylan Carson, Bruin Fleischmann, and Quin Smith from last year's unit, creating uncertainty about skill position depth despite retaining their signal-caller and most of the offensive line.

JP+ projects 8.1 wins for Air Force in 2026, well above the market's 6.5-win threshold and creating significant value on the over. The system sees a team with mixed continuity — stable defensively but facing offensive replacement questions — that should improve from last year's disappointing record through natural progression and better health. If Szarka can elevate his play and the new faces at receiver and running back mesh quickly with the option attack, the Falcons could surprise in the Mountain West. If offensive chemistry takes time to develop, another mediocre season looms despite the favorable projection.