JP+ One-Sheet
UNLV
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
8.1Team Thesis
UNLV Reloads Around Jackson Arnold After a 10-Win Breakthrough. UNLV comes off a 10-3 season and answered it not by standing pat but by going out and getting Jackson Arnold, the Auburn transfer who arrives as the headline addition of a fifteen-playe…
Model Profile
#61
JP+ Rank
#33
Offense
#95
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
7.5
Market
8.1
JP+
8.8
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Soft landing
61% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 96%. Collapse risk 4% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 82% to 53%.
Bull Case
10-2If Arnold settles in quickly and the defense holds its ground, this is a team that competes for the top of the league again.
Bear Case
7-5If the offense needs time to gel around a new quarterback and receivers, an 8-win floor feels like the realistic outcome.
Mountain West Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| Air Force | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| New Mexico | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Wyoming | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| San Jose State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 |