JP+ One-Sheet
Oregon
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
9.7Team Thesis
Oregon Enters 2026 With Dante Moore and Nothing Less Than a Championship Standard. Dante Moore is back, and so is every expectation that comes with it.
Model Profile
#2
JP+ Rank
#6
Offense
#6
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
10.5
Market
9.7
JP+
10.2
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.8 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#3
Rated coverage92%
Candidate members71
Rated players65
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path100%
6-0 start43%
Collapse risk12%
43% to start 6-0 or better. Bowl path 100%. Collapse risk 12% (8 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk10: 92% to 37%.
Bull Case
11-1If Moore plays like a top-five pick and the retooled skill groups replace Whittington and Benson's production fast, the ceiling is exactly what…
Bear Case
8-4If the receiver turnover lingers into October, 9.7 wins might be the outcome instead of the floor.
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Michigan | 7.1 | 8.5 | 7.4 |