Oklahoma

John Mateer returns to quarterback an Oklahoma team built on defensive dominance, with the nation's third-ranked run defense and the SEC's top scoring defense positioning the Sooners as quiet contenders for a CFP semifinal berth. The JP+ ratings reflect this identity clearly: a suffocating defense grading at +12.0 points (#4 nationally) masks an offense that checks in at just +3.6 (#29), creating an overall power rating of +16.1 that slots Oklahoma 13th nationally. The portal provided key offensive reinforcements, headlined by Virginia transfer Trell Harris (46.2 PPA) stepping in after JaVonnie Gibson's departure to Cincinnati, while Colorado State tight end Rocky Beers (25.6 PPA) and Texas receiver Parker Livingstone (19.2 PPA) add depth to a unit that desperately needs playmakers.

JP+ projects 7.3 wins for Oklahoma in what amounts to a prove-it season for a program coming off a 10-2 campaign but facing a brutal SEC slate that includes road trips to Georgia and Michigan plus a neutral-site clash with Texas. The defensive foundation should keep the Sooners competitive in every game, but the offensive limitations create a narrow margin for error against elite competition. If Mateer can elevate the passing game with his new weapons and the defense maintains its elite level, Oklahoma could surprise and reach double-digit wins again — but offensive struggles against top-tier defenses could just as easily lead to a disappointing season in the high-seven win range.