Oklahoma

Oklahoma enters 2026 with a clear formula: quarterback John Mateer directing an offense backed by the nation's third-ranked run defense and the SEC's top scoring defense. The Sooners' +14.7 JP+ rating (#16 nationally) reflects an elite defensive unit (+10.8, #4) that can carry a middling offense (+3.3, #30) through the SEC gauntlet. The transfer portal reshaped the skill positions as Oklahoma lost JaVonnie Gibson to Cincinnati but added Virginia's Trell Harris (46.2 PPA), Colorado State tight end Rocky Beers (25.6 PPA), and Texas receiver Parker Livingstone (19.2 PPA) to give Mateer upgraded weapons.

JP+ projects 7.6 wins for the Sooners, who face a brutal SEC slate including road trips to Georgia and Florida plus a neutral-site showdown with Texas. The defensive continuity gives Oklahoma stability while offensive questions linger around replacing departed production and integrating portal additions into Mateer's system. If the defense maintains its dominance and the new receivers click quickly, Oklahoma has the pieces for a College Football Playoff semifinal run. If offensive chemistry takes time to develop, even with that elite defense, the Sooners could fall short of double-digit wins in their second SEC campaign.