Boston College

The Eagles should catch several breaks and start winning with linebacker Kris Jones arriving from Georgia, but everything needs to be way tighter after a disastrous 2-10 campaign. Boston College's defense collapsed last season, grading out at 111th nationally with a brutal -3.7 rating, while the offense managed a respectable +0.6 mark good for 53rd. The portal shuffle brought significant turnover, with quarterback Dylan Lonergan (59.6 PPA) departing for Rutgers and receiver Reed Harris (33.5 PPA) heading to Arizona State, though running back Evan Dickens (38.0 PPA) from Liberty should provide immediate help alongside receivers Javarius Green from North Carolina and Landon Wright from Washington State.

JP+ projects 4.7 wins for the Eagles, making the over 3.5 market number an attractive proposition with 53% expected value. The schedule offers some breathing room with home games against Rutgers, Syracuse, and Maine, but road trips to Notre Dame, Miami, and SMU loom as potential blowouts if that defense doesn't improve dramatically around Jones. Special teams excellence (9th nationally at +0.5) gives Boston College an edge in tight games, and the new signal-caller taking over for Lonergan inherits decent offensive infrastructure. If Jones can anchor a competent defense and the offense maintains its middle-of-the-pack production, six wins isn't unrealistic. If not, another long season awaits in Chestnut Hill.