Boston College went 2-10 a year ago, and the offseason mission is simple: get closer in the games that got away. Georgia transfer linebacker Kris Jones headlines a defense that projects as the shakier of the two units, but continuity there is actually stable, with none of the wholesale departures that hit the offense. That offense is undergoing real change. Dylan Lonergan, who posted 59.6 PPA before leaving for Rutgers, is gone, along with Grayson James, Lewis Bond, and running back Turbo Richard, who took his 9.6 PPA to Indiana. The new signal-caller inherits a group that also lost receiver Reed Harris to Arizona State. Liberty transfer running back Evan Dickens, who led the 26-man incoming portal class at 38.0 PPA, arrives alongside receivers Javarius Green and Landon Wright to help offset a departure list that outweighed the arrivals in overall production. The offense grades as roughly average and the defense below average, with special teams the clear strength — a profile that puts real weight on margins in close games.

JP+ projects 4.2 wins, while the market's over/under sits at 3.5 — a gap that reflects both the schedule and the uncertainty around who wins the quarterback job. Road trips to Notre Dame, Miami, and SMU are unlikely sources of wins, but home dates with Rutgers, Syracuse, and Maine offer a real path to clearing last year's total. The offensive transition carries genuine uncertainty given how little returns at skill positions and how concentrated the losses were, which is why the staff needs the quarterback competition to resolve cleanly and the newcomers to hit quickly. If Jones anchors a defense that tightens up in the fourth quarter and the new quarterback settles in fast, Boston College clears the over comfortably. If the offensive transition drags, another season below the number is realistic.