Ben Finley is back at quarterback, and that continuity matters given how much else around him has turned over. The Zips lost Israel Polk, an 8.0-PPA wide receiver, to Oklahoma State, and tight end Max Whisner departed for Sam Houston, stripping out two established pass-catchers in one cycle. The offensive line is being reset with just 56% continuity up front, and target share retention sits at a thin 3%, meaning whoever lines up next to Finley will mostly be new faces. Charlotte transfer Miles Burris, the headline arrival at 4.1 PPA, steps into the receiver room to help offset that loss, and North Texas transfer Reese Poffenbarger gives the QB room some depth behind Finley. Across 18 departures and 15 arrivals, Akron netted more PPA lost than gained, and the roster profile — bottom-tier across offense, defense, and special teams — reflects a program still searching for a foothold after a 5-7 finish. The defense, by contrast, shows no major role-loss flags and returns with more stability than the offense, which will need to lean on that side of the ball early while the skill groups gel.

JP+ projects 4.7 wins out of 12, a modest number that lines up with a schedule offering few easy exits — road trips to Minnesota, Wake Forest, and Miami (OH) all qualify as difficult, while Kent State, UMass, and a home date with Robert Morris represent the clearest paths to victories. The gap between that projection and any rosier market expectation likely traces back to the offensive line reset and the thin returning target share, both flagged as areas of uncertainty given how little proven production is back outside the quarterback spot. If Burris and the retooled receiver corps give Finley functional targets and the line settles by midseason, Akron can push past 4.8 and put a few more of those winnable games away. If the trench issues linger and the passing game struggles to replace Polk's production, the floor could look a lot like last year's five-win finish, or worse.