JP+ One-Sheet
Washington
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
7.7Team Thesis
Washington's Quarterback Scare Ends in Relief, Not Retention Panic. Demond Williams Jr.
Model Profile
#21
JP+ Rank
#13
Offense
#20
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
7.5
Market
7.7
JP+
7.8
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.2 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#28
Rated coverage77%
Candidate members73
Rated players56
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path94%
4-2 start90%
Collapse risk6%
90% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 94%. Collapse risk 6% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk12: 77% to 34%.
Bull Case
9-3If Williams picks up where he left off and the front seven stabilizes fast, this team's ceiling is a Big Ten contender with a top-tier defense c…
Bear Case
6-6If the offensive line toughness Fisch is chasing doesn't show up, or the coverage attrition lingers, 8-4 repeats itself instead of improving on…
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Michigan | 7.1 | 8.5 | 7.4 |