JP+ One-Sheet
USC
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
7.4Team Thesis
USC Brings In Gary Patterson To Sharpen A Defense Built To Support Jayden Maiava And An Elite Offense. The defining theme this offseason is simple: everything is in place for USC to finally win the program's first Big Ten title, and it starts with c…
Model Profile
#16
JP+ Rank
#4
Offense
#38
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
8.5
Market
7.4
JP+
7.8
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Front-loaded
53% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 92%. Collapse risk 25% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 74% to 33%.
Bull Case
9-3If the defense plays to its above-average billing under Patterson and the retooled receiver room clicks fast enough for Maiava, the ceiling incl…
Bear Case
6-6If the receiver continuity questions linger into October, a season closer to the projected 7.4 wins, with losses to Indiana, Ohio State, or Oreg…
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Michigan | 7.1 | 8.5 | 7.4 |