JP+ One-Sheet
USC
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
7.4
Model Profile
#14
JP+ Rank
#4
Off Adj
#37
Def Adj
Overall
+14.9
Offense
+11.2
Defense
+2.6
Win Total Context
8.5
Market
7.4
JP+
7.8
SP+
Bowl Path92%
Fast Start53%
Collapse Risk25%
Path Shape
Front-loaded
53% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 92%. Collapse risk 25% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk9: 68% to 27%.
Big Ten Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| Oregon | 9.6 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.6 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Iowa | 8.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| UCLA | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Michigan | 7.0 | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Nebraska | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Illinois | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Maryland | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 |