JP+ One-Sheet
Oregon State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
4.6Team Thesis
Oregon State Hands JaMarcus Shephard a Roster Still Finding Its Footing. JaMarcus Shephard takes over a program that won two games in 2025, and his first roster build leans on continuity at the most important position while reshuffling almost everyt…
Model Profile
#100
JP+ Rank
#108
Offense
#88
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
4.5
Market
4.6
JP+
5.2
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Soft landing
51% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 25%. Collapse risk 8% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 92% to 60%.
Bull Case
6-5If the offensive line reset stabilizes faster than expected and Murphy finds a reliable set of targets, this team can hover near bowl-eligibilit…
Bear Case
3-8If the trench rebuild lags and the receiver room stays thin, 2026 looks like another season defined by the defense keeping games close and the o…
Pac-12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Boise State | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Fresno State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 |
| Texas State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Washington State | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Utah State | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Colorado State | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 |