JP+ One-Sheet
Oregon State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
4.6
Model Profile
#105
JP+ Rank
#112
Off Adj
#90
Def Adj
Overall
-6.7
Offense
-3.9
Defense
-1.8
Win Total Context
3.5
Market
4.6
JP+
5.0
SP+
Bowl Path23%
Fast Start84%
Collapse Risk1%
Path Shape
Early equity
84% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 23%. Collapse risk 1% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 92% to 57%.
Pac-12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Boise State | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Fresno State | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Texas State | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Washington State | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Utah State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Colorado State | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.0 |