JP+ One-Sheet
Northwestern
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
5.5
Model Profile
#44
JP+ Rank
#47
Off Adj
#59
Def Adj
Overall
+4.4
Offense
+1.9
Defense
+0.3
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
5.5
JP+
5.4
SP+
Bowl Path47%
Fast Start84%
Collapse Risk8%
Path Shape
Early equity
84% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 47%. Collapse risk 8% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk9: 64% to 8%.
Big Ten Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| Oregon | 9.6 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.6 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Iowa | 8.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| UCLA | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Minnesota | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Rutgers | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Northwestern | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Purdue | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Michigan State | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 |