JP+ One-Sheet
Northwestern
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
5.7Team Thesis
Chip Kelly's Offense Gets a New Engine in Evanston. The defining offseason story here is Chip Kelly stepping in as offensive coordinator and immediately importing Aidan Chiles, the Michigan State transfer quarterback, to run his system.
Model Profile
#51
JP+ Rank
#45
Offense
#62
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
5.5
Market
5.7
JP+
5.3
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Early equity
87% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 56%. Collapse risk 5% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk9: 67% to 9%.
Bull Case
7-5If Chiles or Marchiol wins the job cleanly and the concentrated offensive turnover resolves into a cohesive attack, this group has the pieces to…
Bear Case
4-8If the transition drags into November, a defense that's stable but unspectacular won't be enough to bail it out.
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Minnesota | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Northwestern | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Rutgers | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 |