JP+ One-Sheet
Missouri
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
6.7Team Thesis
Missouri's Portal Class Is the Story, But the Defense Still Has to Answer for Its Losses. The defining theme in Columbia this offseason is the portal haul, and it's loud.
Model Profile
#23
JP+ Rank
#39
Offense
#13
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
6.5
Market
6.7
JP+
7.3
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.2 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#19
Rated coverage85%
Candidate members81
Rated players69
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path79%
4-2 start69%
Collapse risk7%
69% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 79%. Collapse risk 7% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 99% to 62%.
Bull Case
8-4If Simmons wins the job cleanly and the front seven replacements hold up against SEC lines, this roster has the pieces to push well past the pro…
Bear Case
5-7If the coverage attrition shows up in October and the quarterback competition drags, 6.7 wins might be the ceiling instead of the floor.
SEC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas A&M | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Vanderbilt | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| Missouri | 6.7 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| South Carolina | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 |