JP+ One-Sheet
LSU
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
8.7Team Thesis
Lane Kiffin Arrives With a Mandate: Fix the Offense, Trust the Defense. Lane Kiffin didn't just take a job at LSU — he took a specific problem to solve.
Model Profile
#10
JP+ Rank
#66
Offense
#2
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
8.5
Market
8.7
JP+
8.5
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.2 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#8
Rated coverage84%
Candidate members86
Rated players72
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path99%
5-1 start59%
Collapse risk5%
59% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 99%. Collapse risk 5% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 96% to 48%.
Bull Case
10-2If Leavitt settles in quickly and the defensive front holds up despite the attrition, this group pushes toward the SEC and national title conver…
Bear Case
7-5If Leavitt's transition to the new system lags or the pass rush thins out first, 8.7 wins could prove to be the ceiling, not the floor.
SEC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas A&M | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Florida | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7.6 | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.9 |