JP+ One-Sheet
Louisville
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.7
Model Profile
#31
JP+ Rank
#34
Off Adj
#27
Def Adj
Overall
+7.8
Offense
+3.5
Defense
+4.1
Win Total Context
8.5
Market
7.7
JP+
7.9
SP+
Bowl Path93%
Fast Start25%
Collapse Risk20%
Path Shape
Bowl live
25% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 93%. Collapse risk 20% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 99% to 60%.
ACC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| Virginia | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Clemson | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| NC State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Pitt | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Duke | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Cal | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.1 |