JP+ One-Sheet
Louisville
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.7Team Thesis
Louisville Leans on the Portal to Stay Competitive in a Wide-Open ACC. Louisville's offseason story is roster reconstruction through the transfer portal, not a coaching change.
Model Profile
#28
JP+ Rank
#35
Offense
#25
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
8.5
Market
7.7
JP+
7.8
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.8 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#35
Rated coverage76%
Candidate members83
Rated players63
Season Path
Bowl live
Bowl path93%
5-1 start26%
Collapse risk19%
26% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 93%. Collapse risk 19% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 99% to 58%.
Bull Case
9-3If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the front seven finds its pass-rush identity again, this group can push toward the upper end…
Bear Case
6-6If not, a defensive front reset and an unsettled backfield could make for a bumpier, more uneven ride.
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| NC State | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |