JP+ One-Sheet
Louisiana
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
6.8Team Thesis
Louisiana Rebuilds the Offensive Line While the Defense Holds Steady. The offensive line is the story here.
Model Profile
#114
JP+ Rank
#120
Offense
#118
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
6.8
JP+
7.5
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.7 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#123
Rated coverage69%
Candidate members59
Rated players41
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path82%
4-2 start38%
Collapse risk18%
38% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 82%. Collapse risk 18% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 89% to 5%.
Bull Case
8-4If the line settles by conference play and the defense holds its stable form, six or seven wins is realistic.
Bear Case
5-7If the trenches lag, this could slide toward the bottom-tier profile fully bearing out.
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Troy | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Old Dominion | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.2 |