JP+ One-Sheet
Kentucky
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
4.5Team Thesis
Will Stein Takes Over a Kentucky Roster Rebuilt Through the Portal. Will Stein's first season in Lexington arrives with the roster looking almost nothing like the one that went 5-7 a year ago.
Model Profile
#43
JP+ Rank
#62
Offense
#35
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
4.5
Market
4.5
JP+
4.5
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.0 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#25
Rated coverage83%
Candidate members65
Rated players54
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path17%
3-3 start54%
Collapse risk9%
54% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 17%. Collapse risk 9% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 98% to 29%.
Bull Case
6-6If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and Heard stabilizes the line early, Kentucky's above-average defense and elite special teams co…
Bear Case
3-9If the offensive transition drags into October, a rebuilding year near the middle of the SEC is the more likely outcome.
SEC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas A&M | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Arkansas | 4.7 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Kentucky | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |