JP+ One-Sheet
Jacksonville State
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
7.5Team Thesis
Jacksonville State Leans on a Rebuilt Offensive Line and a Stable Defense. The defining theme here is the offensive line reset happening around a returning quarterback.
Model Profile
#99
JP+ Rank
#92
Offense
#111
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
7.5
Market
7.5
JP+
8.0
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
59% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 91%. Collapse risk 9% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk11: 89% to 39%.
Bull Case
9-3If the line struggles to protect him and the receiving corps takes time to develop, 7.5 wins looks like a reasonable outcome rather than a floor.
Bear Case
6-6If the line struggles to protect him and the receiving corps takes time to develop, 7.5 wins looks like a reasonable outcome rather than a floor.
Conference USA Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.6 | -- | 6.6 |
| Delaware | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Missouri State | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |