JP+ One-Sheet
Illinois
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
6.6
Model Profile
#40
JP+ Rank
#24
Off Adj
#73
Def Adj
Overall
+5.4
Offense
+5.0
Defense
-0.3
Win Total Context
6.5
Market
6.6
JP+
7.0
SP+
Bowl Path79%
Fast Start75%
Collapse Risk7%
Path Shape
Early equity
75% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 79%. Collapse risk 7% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 94% to 9%.
Big Ten Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| Oregon | 9.6 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.6 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Iowa | 8.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| UCLA | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Michigan | 7.0 | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Nebraska | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Illinois | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Maryland | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| Wisconsin | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.4 |