JP+ One-Sheet

Illinois

Big Ten | 2026

Projected Wins

6.5

Team Thesis

Illinois Bets on a Transfer QB and a Rebuilt Front to Finally Match Last Year's Promise. The theme here is simple: Illinois went out and got the quarterback it didn't have last season, then handed the defense over to a new coordinator to keep the id…

Model Profile

#34

JP+ Rank

#22

Offense

#74

Defense

+7.7

Overall

+6.5

Offense

-0.1

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

6.5

Market

6.5

JP+

7.1

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.0 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#67

Rated coverage78%

Candidate members65

Rated players51

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path76%

4-2 start73%

Collapse risk8%

73% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 76%. Collapse risk 8% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 94% to 9%.

Bull Case

8-4

If Houser wins the job outright and the front seven finds answers fast, this group can approach or exceed last year's 8-4 mark.

Bear Case

5-7

If the quarterback race lingers or the pass rush leaks early, 6.6 could be the realistic ceiling rather than the floor.

Big Ten Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Indiana	9.8	10.5	10.0
Oregon	9.7	10.5	10.2
Ohio State	9.5	9.5	10.2
Penn State	8.8	9.5	9.0
Iowa	7.8	7.5	8.0
Nebraska	6.8	6.5	6.2
Illinois	6.5	6.5	7.1
Wisconsin	6.1	6.5	5.7