JP+ One-Sheet
Georgia Southern
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
5.8Team Thesis
Georgia Southern Turns The Page At Quarterback While The Defense Absorbs Another Test. JC French IV is gone, and with him goes 104.3 PPA of production, a departure to Cincinnati that leaves Georgia Southern searching for its next signal-caller headi…
Model Profile
#106
JP+ Rank
#76
Offense
#129
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
4.5
Market
5.8
JP+
5.6
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
54% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 58%. Collapse risk 1% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 96% to 8%.
Bull Case
7-5If Johnson wins the job cleanly and the defense finds a level above its 2025 form, this group pushes past 6.2 and threatens bowl eligibility wit…
Bear Case
4-8If the quarterback competition drags or the offensive line struggles early, the offense could stall behind a defense still searching for its foo…
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Old Dominion | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Georgia Southern | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| South Alabama | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 |