JP+ One-Sheet
FAU
American | 2026
Projected Wins
6.2
Model Profile
#99
JP+ Rank
#87
Off Adj
#112
Def Adj
Overall
-5.9
Offense
-1.9
Defense
-3.7
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
6.2
JP+
6.1
SP+
Bowl Path66%
Fast Start80%
Collapse Risk4%
Path Shape
Early equity
80% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 66%. Collapse risk 4% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk7: 99% to 28%.
American Athletic Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Navy | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.1 |
| Army | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| East Carolina | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| UTSA | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Tulsa | 6.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| North Texas | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Tulane | 6.2 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| FAU | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| Temple | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| UAB | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 |