JP+ One-Sheet
Colorado State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
4.4Team Thesis
Colorado State Turns to Jim Mora With a New Quarterback and a Retooled Roster. Jim Mora takes over a program that finished 2-10, and the job in front of him starts with replacing the guy who took most of the snaps.
Model Profile
#107
JP+ Rank
#96
Offense
#117
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
3.5
Market
4.4
JP+
3.9
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Early equity
90% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 20%. Collapse risk 2% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 91% to 16%.
Bull Case
6-5If the new quarterback plays turnover-free early and the defense simply holds steady rather than collapsing, Colorado State clears the number co…
Bear Case
3-8If the transition at quarterback drags and the defense remains thin, this could look like another long season under a new staff.
Pac-12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Boise State | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Fresno State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 |
| Texas State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Washington State | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Utah State | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Colorado State | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 |