JP+ One-Sheet

Coastal Carolina

Sun Belt | 2026

Projected Wins

5.1

Team Thesis

Coastal Carolina Turns the Page Under Ryan Beard. Ryan Beard takes over a program that went 6-6 in Tim Beck's final season, and he inherits a roster that looks bottom-tier across the board in offense, defense, and special teams.

Model Profile

#121

JP+ Rank

#118

Offense

#122

Defense

-11.6

Overall

-5.6

Offense

-5.4

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

4.5

Market

5.1

JP+

5.3

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.6 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#85

Rated coverage56%

Candidate members72

Rated players40

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path36%

3-3 start43%

Collapse risk6%

43% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 36%. Collapse risk 6% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 79% to 32%.

Bull Case

7-5

If the QB competition produces a legitimate playmaker and Gardner translates his portal production immediately, this group could stabilize faste…

Bear Case

4-8

If not, a rebuilt receiving corps and a first-time head coach could mean a slow start while the pieces settle into place.

Sun Belt Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
James Madison	7.7	8.5	8.9
Marshall	7.6	7.5	7.7
Arkansas State	7.0	6.5	6.6
Louisiana	6.8	7.5	7.5
Appalachian State	6.8	5.5	6.2
Southern Miss	5.3	3.5	3.7
Coastal Carolina	5.1	4.5	5.3
Georgia State	3.6	3.5	2.3