JP+ One-Sheet
Bowling Green
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
5.6Team Thesis
Bowling Green Turns the Page at Quarterback Again. Bowling Green's offseason theme is turnover at the position that matters most.
Model Profile
#115
JP+ Rank
#123
Offense
#115
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
4.5
Market
5.6
JP+
5.3
SP+
JP+ GAP: +1.1 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#106
Rated coverage68%
Candidate members75
Rated players51
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path52%
3-3 start40%
Collapse risk1%
40% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 52%. Collapse risk 1% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.9 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 87% to 6%.
Bull Case
7-5If the offense finds enough continuity to avoid a full regression and the defense holds steady, this group clears six wins.
Bear Case
4-8If the transfer losses prove too costly up front, a repeat of last year's four-win mark is the more likely outcome.
Mid-American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Ohio | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Buffalo | 6.3 | -- | 7.0 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Central Michigan | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Bowling Green | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.3 |