JP+ One-Sheet
Auburn
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
6.4Team Thesis
Alex Golesh Brings His Offense to Auburn, and Byrum Brown Comes With It. Alex Golesh didn't just take the Auburn job, he brought the quarterback who ran his USF attack the last two seasons.
Model Profile
#26
JP+ Rank
#58
Offense
#16
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
6.5
Market
6.4
JP+
6.4
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.1 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#18
Rated coverage87%
Candidate members77
Rated players67
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path73%
4-2 start37%
Collapse risk10%
37% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 73%. Collapse risk 10% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk13: 99% to 34%.
Bull Case
8-4If Brown's chemistry with his USF transfers translates immediately and the front seven finds answers on the edge, Auburn pushes toward the highe…
Bear Case
5-7If the defensive turnover shows up on tape before it's fixed, 6.4 wins is closer to a ceiling than a floor.
SEC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas A&M | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Texas | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| South Carolina | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Auburn | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| Mississippi State | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 |