JP+ One-Sheet

Appalachian State

Sun Belt | 2026

Projected Wins

6.8

Team Thesis

Appalachian State Rebuilds Around a New Quarterback and a Thinner Receiver Room. The defining fact of Appalachian State's offseason is that the huddle will sound different.

Model Profile

#101

JP+ Rank

#101

Offense

#109

Defense

-6.2

Overall

-2.9

Offense

-3.5

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

5.5

Market

6.8

JP+

6.2

SP+

JP+ GAP: +1.3 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#78

Rated coverage67%

Candidate members85

Rated players57

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path81%

3-3 start80%

Collapse risk1%

80% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 81%. Collapse risk 1% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 85% to 14%.

Bull Case

8-4

If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the pass-catchers replacing Dozier and Barnes find a rhythm, this group can play toward the…

Bear Case

5-7

If the offense needs a few games to find its identity, a defense adjusting to its own coverage losses may not have enough cushion to keep this f…

Sun Belt Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
James Madison	7.7	8.5	8.9
Marshall	7.6	7.5	7.7
Arkansas State	7.0	6.5	6.6
Louisiana	6.8	7.5	7.5
Appalachian State	6.8	5.5	6.2
Troy	6.4	6.5	7.2
Louisiana Tech	6.4	5.5	6.5
Old Dominion	6.1	7.5	7.2