Win Total Projections
JP+ Monte Carlo expected regular-season wins vs. Vegas preseason lines · grouped by conference
JP+ Wins — Monte Carlo expected regular-season winsBook — Vegas preseason win total line+Edge / −Edge — JP+ above / below Vegas (OVER / UNDER lean)Actual — final regular-season wins (green = over book line)
| Rk | Team | JP+ Wins | Book | Edge | SP+ | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC16 teams | ||||||
| 2 |  Georgia | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Alabama | 9.4 | 9.5 | -0.1 | 9.8 | 10 |
| 12 |  Texas | 8.4 | 9.5 | -1.1 | 9.6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Ole Miss | 8.3 | 8.5 | -0.2 | 8.9 | 11 |
| 19 |  Texas A&M | 8.1 | 7.5 | +0.6 | 7.7 | 11 |
| 21 |  Tennessee | 8.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 8.8 | 8 |
| 24 |  LSU | 7.9 | 8.5 | -0.6 | 8.5 | 7 |
| 37 |  South Carolina | 7.4 | 7.5 | -0.1 | 7.2 | 4 |
| 49 |  Florida | 7.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 7.0 | 4 |
| 53 |  Missouri | 6.9 | 7.5 | -0.6 | 7.7 | 8 |
| 62 |  Oklahoma | 6.8 | 7.5 | -0.7 | 6.9 | 10 |
| 75 |  Auburn | 6.1 | 7.5 | -1.4 | 6.9 | 5 |
| 77 |  Vanderbilt | 6.1 | 4.5 | +1.6 | 4.7 | 10 |
| 83 |  Arkansas | 5.9 | — | — | 5.1 | 2 |
| 109 |  Kentucky | 5.3 | 4.5 | +0.8 | 4.7 | 5 |
| 123 |  Mississippi State | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 3.8 | 5 |
| Big Ten18 teams | ||||||
| 1 |  Ohio State | 10.2 | 10.5 | -0.3 | 10.3 | 12 |
| 6 |  Penn State | 9.2 | 10.5 | -1.3 | 10.4 | 6 |
| 7 |  Oregon | 9.1 | 10.5 | -1.4 | 10.1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Michigan | 8.3 | 8.5 | -0.2 | 9.8 | 9 |
| 23 |  Indiana | 7.9 | 8.5 | -0.6 | 8.1 | 13 |
| 36 |  USC | 7.4 | 7.5 | -0.1 | 7.2 | 9 |
| 44 |  Illinois | 7.1 | 8.5 | -1.4 | 8.7 | 8 |
| 47 |  Nebraska | 7.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 7.5 | 7 |
| 48 |  Iowa | 7.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 7.0 | 8 |
| 51 |  Minnesota | 6.9 | 7.5 | -0.6 | 6.8 | 7 |
| 67 |  Washington | 6.4 | 7.5 | -1.1 | 6.3 | 8 |
| 73 |  Rutgers | 6.2 | 5.5 | +0.7 | 5.8 | 5 |
| 98 |  UCLA | 5.4 | 5.5 | -0.1 | 5.2 | 3 |
| 102 |  Michigan State | 5.4 | 5.5 | -0.1 | 4.7 | 4 |
| 111 |  Wisconsin | 5.3 | 5.5 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 4 |
| 112 |  Maryland | 5.3 | 4.5 | +0.8 | 5.1 | 4 |
| 122 |  Northwestern | 4.8 | 3.5 | +1.3 | 3.7 | 6 |
| 134 |  Purdue | 3.6 | 3.5 | +0.1 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Big 1216 teams | ||||||
| 5 |  BYU | 9.2 | 7.5 | +1.7 | 8.4 | 11 |
| 17 |  Kansas State | 8.2 | 8.5 | -0.3 | 9.0 | 6 |
| 28 |  Texas Tech | 7.7 | 8.5 | -0.8 | 8.4 | 12 |
| 31 |  Arizona State | 7.6 | 8.5 | -0.9 | 8.4 | 8 |
| 33 |  Baylor | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 5 |
| 43 |  Iowa State | 7.2 | 7.5 | -0.3 | 7.8 | 8 |
| 54 |  TCU | 6.9 | 6.5 | +0.4 | 7.5 | 8 |
| 61 |  Kansas | 6.8 | 7.5 | -0.7 | 6.0 | 5 |
| 70 |  Cincinnati | 6.3 | 6.5 | -0.2 | 5.3 | 7 |
| 76 |  Houston | 6.1 | 6.5 | -0.4 | 5.8 | 9 |
| 79 |  Colorado | 6.1 | 6.5 | -0.4 | 5.5 | 3 |
| 84 |  Utah | 5.8 | 7.5 | -1.7 | 7.9 | 10 |
| 90 |  UCF | 5.7 | 5.5 | +0.2 | 5.7 | 5 |
| 93 |  West Virginia | 5.6 | 5.5 | +0.1 | 5.2 | 4 |
| 96 |  Oklahoma State | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 97 |  Arizona | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 9 |
| ACC17 teams | ||||||
| 10 |  Clemson | 8.5 | 9.5 | -1.0 | 10.0 | 7 |
| 15 |  SMU | 8.2 | 8.5 | -0.3 | 8.4 | 8 |
| 18 |  Miami | 8.1 | 8.5 | -0.4 | 9.2 | 10 |
| 30 |  Louisville | 7.6 | 8.5 | -0.9 | 8.3 | 8 |
| 41 |  Virginia Tech | 7.2 | 6.5 | +0.7 | 6.6 | 3 |
| 42 |  NC State | 7.2 | 6.5 | +0.7 | 6.6 | 7 |
| 52 |  Georgia Tech | 6.9 | 7.5 | -0.6 | 6.6 | 9 |
| 55 |  Duke | 6.9 | 6.5 | +0.4 | 6.8 | 8 |
| 58 |  Pitt | 6.8 | 5.5 | +1.3 | 6.1 | 8 |
| 68 |  North Carolina | 6.4 | 7.5 | -1.1 | 6.6 | 4 |
| 72 |  Cal | 6.3 | 5.5 | +0.8 | 5.9 | 7 |
| 82 |  Virginia | 5.9 | 6.5 | -0.6 | 5.1 | 10 |
| 86 |  Boston College | 5.8 | 5.5 | +0.3 | 5.2 | 2 |
| 101 |  Florida State | 5.4 | 6.5 | -1.1 | 6.8 | 5 |
| 103 |  Syracuse | 5.4 | 5.5 | -0.1 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 110 |  Wake Forest | 5.3 | 4.5 | +0.8 | 5.2 | 8 |
| 128 |  Stanford | 4.2 | 3.5 | +0.7 | 3.4 | 4 |
| Mountain West12 teams | ||||||
| 3 |  Boise State | 9.4 | — | — | 9.8 | 9 |
| 8 |  UNLV | 8.7 | 8.5 | +0.2 | 7.8 | 10 |
| 38 |  San Jose State | 7.3 | 7.5 | -0.2 | 7.3 | 3 |
| 66 |  Colorado State | 6.4 | 6.5 | -0.1 | 5.9 | 2 |
| 81 |  Fresno State | 5.9 | 6.5 | -0.6 | 6.5 | 8 |
| 91 |  Wyoming | 5.7 | 5.5 | +0.2 | 5.4 | 4 |
| 99 |  Utah State | 5.4 | 4.5 | +0.9 | 4.3 | 6 |
| 105 |  San Diego State | 5.4 | 4.5 | +0.9 | 5.7 | 9 |
| 108 |  Hawaii | 5.3 | 5.5 | -0.2 | 5.5 | 8 |
| 120 |  Nevada | 4.9 | 3.5 | +1.4 | 4.1 | 3 |
| 129 |  Air Force | 4.2 | — | — | 6.2 | 4 |
| 133 |  New Mexico | 3.6 | 3.5 | +0.1 | 3.6 | 9 |
| American Athletic14 teams | ||||||
| 20 |  Memphis | 8.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 8.7 | 8 |
| 27 |  UTSA | 7.8 | 7.5 | +0.3 | 7.8 | 6 |
| 32 |  Tulane | 7.5 | 8.5 | -1.0 | 8.8 | 11 |
| 45 |  South Florida | 7.1 | 6.5 | +0.6 | 6.2 | 9 |
| 60 |  North Texas | 6.8 | 6.5 | +0.3 | 6.8 | 11 |
| 74 |  East Carolina | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 6.0 | 8 |
| 80 |  Navy | 6.0 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 7.9 | 9 |
| 92 |  Army | 5.6 | — | — | 7.6 | 6 |
| 94 |  Rice | 5.5 | 3.5 | +2.0 | 4.1 | 5 |
| 104 |  UAB | 5.4 | 4.5 | +0.9 | 4.6 | 4 |
| 115 |  Tulsa | 5.1 | 3.5 | +1.6 | 3.9 | 4 |
| 121 |  Temple | 4.8 | 3.5 | +1.3 | 3.8 | 5 |
| 124 |  FAU | 4.6 | 4.5 | +0.1 | 4.6 | 4 |
| 131 |  Charlotte | 4.0 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Sun Belt14 teams | ||||||
| 22 |  Texas State | 7.9 | 7.5 | +0.4 | 6.1 | 6 |
| 29 |  Marshall | 7.7 | 5.5 | +2.2 | 5.7 | 5 |
| 34 |  Louisiana | 7.4 | 7.5 | -0.1 | 7.5 | 6 |
| 35 |  Georgia Southern | 7.4 | 7.5 | -0.1 | 7.3 | 6 |
| 39 |  James Madison | 7.3 | 8.5 | -1.2 | 8.5 | 12 |
| 63 |  South Alabama | 6.6 | 6.5 | +0.1 | 7.3 | 4 |
| 64 |  Coastal Carolina | 6.5 | 5.5 | +1.0 | 6.0 | 6 |
| 87 |  Troy | 5.8 | 5.5 | +0.3 | 6.6 | 8 |
| 88 |  Arkansas State | 5.8 | — | — | 5.3 | 6 |
| 89 |  Old Dominion | 5.7 | 5.5 | +0.2 | 4.8 | 9 |
| 95 |  Appalachian State | 5.5 | — | — | 6.2 | 5 |
| 118 |  ULM | 5.0 | 4.5 | +0.5 | 4.4 | 3 |
| 126 |  Georgia State | 4.2 | 3.5 | +0.7 | 3.7 | 1 |
| 132 |  Southern Miss | 3.7 | 4.5 | -0.8 | 3.4 | 7 |
| Mid-American13 teams | ||||||
| 25 |  Miami (OH) | 7.8 | 6.5 | +1.3 | 6.5 | 7 |
| 26 |  Toledo | 7.8 | 8.5 | -0.7 | 8.8 | 8 |
| 40 |  Buffalo | 7.2 | 7.5 | -0.3 | 7.7 | 5 |
| 46 |  Ohio | 7.1 | 7.5 | -0.4 | 7.4 | 8 |
| 57 |  Northern Illinois | 6.8 | 6.5 | +0.3 | 6.3 | 3 |
| 59 |  Western Michigan | 6.8 | 4.5 | +2.3 | 4.8 | 9 |
| 71 |  Bowling Green | 6.3 | 6.5 | -0.2 | 5.3 | 4 |
| 106 |  Akron | 5.3 | — | — | 4.5 | 5 |
| 119 |  UMass | 5.0 | 4.5 | +0.5 | 3.5 | 0 |
| 125 |  Eastern Michigan | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 4 |
| 127 |  Central Michigan | 4.2 | 5.5 | -1.3 | 5.3 | 7 |
| 130 |  Ball State | 4.0 | — | — | 3.4 | 4 |
| 136 |  Kent State | 2.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | 2.8 | 5 |
| Conference USA12 teams | ||||||
| 11 |  Jacksonville State | 8.4 | 6.5 | +1.9 | 6.5 | 8 |
| 16 |  Liberty | 8.2 | 9.5 | -1.3 | 9.2 | 4 |
| 56 |  Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 7.5 | -0.6 | 7.7 | 8 |
| 65 |  Delaware | 6.5 | 5.5 | +1.0 | 5.4 | 6 |
| 85 |  Sam Houston | 5.8 | 4.5 | +1.3 | 5.2 | 2 |
| 100 |  Louisiana Tech | 5.4 | 6.5 | -1.1 | 5.8 | 7 |
| 107 |  UTEP | 5.3 | 5.5 | -0.2 | 4.8 | 2 |
| 113 |  Middle Tennessee | 5.2 | 4.5 | +0.7 | 5.3 | 3 |
| 114 |  FIU | 5.2 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 4.7 | 7 |
| 116 |  New Mexico State | 5.1 | 4.5 | +0.6 | 5.4 | 4 |
| 117 |  Missouri State | 5.1 | 4.5 | +0.6 | 4.0 | 7 |
| 135 |  Kennesaw State | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 10 |
| FBS Independents2 teams | ||||||
| 9 |  Notre Dame | 8.7 | 10.5 | -1.8 | 10.5 | 10 |
| 50 |  UConn | 7.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 7.4 | 9 |
| Pac-122 teams | ||||||
| 69 |  Oregon State | 6.3 | 6.5 | -0.2 | 6.6 | 2 |
| 78 |  Washington State | 6.1 | 5.5 | +0.6 | 5.6 | 6 |